March 2026

During a week dominated by news of the Middle East conflict, on 3 March 2026, Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented the Spring Forecast to Parliament. The Chancellor told MPs she had “restored economic stability” as she presented the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) economic forecasts.

The Chancellor focused on how the government’s policies are delivering economic growth, particularly when looking at Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person. However, the OBR’s report indicates a more nuanced picture and notes that the fiscal context for the next Budget will remain challenging.

As part of the government’s policy of one major fiscal event a year, the Chancellor announced no new tax or spending policies. However, the OBR’s forecasts do provide some early clues about future tax and spending pressures.

What does the Spring Forecast tell us about tax?

From a tax perspective, the OBR’s report points to a tax environment that will feel increasingly heavy over the rest of the decade. Taxes as a share of GDP are projected to climb to 38.5% by 2030/31, a post-war high.

Much of this increase comes from the freeze on income tax thresholds, which will continue until April 2031. Combined with rising wages, this means more people are being pulled into paying higher tax rates, even if their circumstances have not changed.

The state pension creates an interesting complication: from 2027/28 it is expected to exceed the personal allowance, bringing an estimated 600,000 more people into tax in 2026/27 and around 1 million by 2030/31. The government has said it does not intend for pensioners whose only income is the basic or new state pension to pay income tax during this Parliament. However, the final details on this policy and how it will work in practice have not yet been announced.

The OBR notes that the increase in employer national insurance contributions, which took effect last April, is also playing a significant role in the higher tax take. These increased costs are potentially feeding into business hiring decisions at a time when unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.3% in 2026, before falling to 4.1% by 2030.

Self assessment payments are also expected to rise sharply in 2026/27, partly due to the non-domiciled tax regime being abolished in 2025/26 and a subsequent temporary repatriation facility being offered. If you have overseas income or assets, it is still important to carefully review your tax planning.

The strong performance of UK equity shares in recent months means that the OBR are expecting receipts from capital taxes to rise. If you hold UK equity shares, this may be a good time to review your holdings and consider whether crystallising gains now, rebalancing your portfolio and/or making use of available allowances would put you in a better tax position. Any such planning needs to carefully navigate what are known as ‘bed and breakfasting’ rules (effectively selling to re-purchase), so please do get in touch if this situation applies to you.

The practical message from the OBR’s report is that tax planning is becoming ever more important, and capital taxes and transactions are likely to remain on the government’s radar. For individuals and businesses, this means keeping a closer eye on allowances, thinking about the timing of income, gains and dividends, and making sure you are using the reliefs available. Reviewing arrangements such as pension contributions, profit extraction techniques, and the way assets are held within a family may also lead to simple, practical steps that could help to keep future tax bills under control.

What is changing first?

A new website has been launched by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) offering practical guidance and support on the changes that the Employment Rights Act will introduce and what they can do to get ready.

The website provides details of upcoming changes, including several that come into force from April 2026. These include:

• Statutory Sick Pay - No earnings threshold and no three-day waiting period mean more employees will now qualify.
• Day-one family leave - Paternity Leave and Unpaid Parental Leave a right from the first day in a job.
• Bereaved Partner’s Paternity Leave - A new right for time off following the death of a child’s mother or primary adopter.
• Collective redundancy protections - The protective award for non-compliance is being increased.
• Stronger protections for workers who report sexual harassment.
• A new body called the Fair Work Agency will work to uphold workers’ rights and support businesses with compliance.

The website includes details on how to prepare for changes and a timeline of when further changes will be introduced. It can be found here and would be well worth saving to your browser favourites.